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Bank Economical policy Euro zone

Monetary Policy and Financial Crises

What have we learnt from the last financial crisis ?

  1. Monetary stability does not automatically lead to financial stability.
    Specifically in low inflation environment and regular growth of the economy, with globalization, financial bubbles and risk-taking may develop.
  2. Financial cycles have a prominent role.
    Finance matters.
    There is no money and no finance neutrality, as financial conditions have an influence on potential growth and on the intensity of business cycles.
  3. That is why financial stability is common good which deserves to fight for.

What are we learning now ?

  1. CBs strongly and rightly fight systemic crises and successfully combat deflation risk with innovative instruments (non conventional monetary policy). But CBs use these instruments in an asymetric way as unconventional measures against exceptional events stay even when credit growth and economic growth are back, with low unemployment.
    Though, mitigating simple business cycles with the same exceptional tools as in case of huge crises does not seem appropriate.
  2. Too low interest rates for too long :
    Because finance (financial conditions) matters, monetary policy on its own may trigger a financial cycle with nominal interest rates lower than the nominal growth rate for too long. The reasons are increasing risk taking and nascent – then developing – bubbles which bring more and more vulnerabilities in the balance sheets of debtors as well as investors. We are now wittenessing numerous pieces of evidence of such a phenomenon.
  3. Obviously, it is hard to exit unconventional monetary policies.
    And the later the harder, because of the evergrowing financial vulnerabilities this asymetry begets. So exit is more and more perilous, insofar as with time any return to « normal » interest rate could increasingly trigger a financial crisis. But an ever-postponed exit means next  financial crisis could explode more dangerously and more violently in the future.
  4. It is dangerous to expect too much from monetary policy. An appropriate combination with fiscal and structural policies is needed.
  5. A combination of monetary policy dedicated to the objective of inflation and growth and of macro-prudential policies dedicated to the objective of financial stability is not a very effective way to combat financial cycles. Macroprudential policies are definitely a needed instrument but, for many reasons, they are not sufficient alone. The least of these reasons is the existence of a dramatically increasing shadow banking, in a broad acceptation of the expression. Shadow banking is not as regulated as banks are, to say the least and macro-prudential policies do not apply to shadow banking.
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Bank

BRED continued to grow in H1, with a 6.2% rise in its Net Banking Income and Net Profit up 26%.

Read the full press release here 

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Bank Finance

Planet finance or the financing of the real economy

Read my talk on the essential role played by regional banks given at a conference organised by IHEDATE in February 2019 on the theme of “Financial players, approaches and territories”.

Through the title “Planet finance or the financing of the real economy”, my aim is not to defend the banking system as a lobbyist but to explain the usefulness of commercial banking. And also to explain that, in France in particular, two banking models exist, each with its own interest and usefulness, though the two are not identical.

First, there are banks with a centralised model, such as BNP Paribas and Société Générale. These groups are listed on the stock market.

The other model is that of cooperative or mutualist banks, including Crédit Mutuel, Crédit Agricole and BPCE, grouping the Banques Populaires and Caisses d’Épargne. These groups have a different organisation structure, with a full-fledged bank operating in each region and territory under their brand. They also have a singular governance system. Each of these regional banks has a local board of directors or supervisory board that controls its executive. Each regional bank has its cooperative members, which hold the bank’s capital. Moreover, these regional banks are the shareholders of the central body of the cooperative and mutualist groups.

This system has regularly acquired market shares in France and delivers high-performance management ratios.

The relational, decision-making and managerial proximity of cooperative banks

What, then, are the key reasons for which the regional-bank system is developing strongly in retail banking? The reasons are quite simple.

The first is decision-making proximity. At regional banks, decisions on credit, even for the most significant amounts, are made locally, in the region. Companies also like working with banks whose decision-making centres are located in their territory.

Another key advantage to my mind is managerial proximity, which is a rather neglected point. At cooperative banks, the executives and managers have long-standing presence in the region. They contribute to explaining the bank’s strategy. The bank’s organisational decisions are also made in close connection with employees. This managerial proximity is crucial because retail banking is all about services. The ability to rally teams to the benefit of customers makes all the difference and stands as a decisive factor in making a difference in terms of results.

The third and equally essential point is relational proximity. This takes a number of forms. The relationship between the customer and the bank must be a lasting one. Our ability to properly perform our advisory business, to create loyalty and achieve profitability over the long term hinges on this relationship. In response to “low cost” banks, which recently were in the spotlight once again, BRED devised a slogan, “Banking without distance”. We can work remotely, by telephone or email, if the customer either cannot or no longer wants to visit the branch, but they can always do so if they like. And they keep their dedicated advisor. We are doing away with physical distance. But we are also doing away with relational distance, by not placing a distance between ourselves and the customer. And we seek to bring the customer added value, by providing them with the best, most appropriate advice possible. Relational proximity is also achieved through a denser network of branches. Retail banking market shares are also revealing regarding the coverage of the branch network. This is irrefutable. Relational proximity is also boosted by long-term relationships between customers and their bank.

This relational proximity can also be seen more globally. Congruence between the bank and its region and territories is essential. If we do our job well, we foster the growth of the territory. Which means that cooperative banks are in symbiosis with their territory. If the region is doing well, the bank is doing well. And vice-versa. The interests of the territory and the bank are convergent. Lastly, all regional banks are in one way or another committed socially to each territory. Some of them work in sports, others in culture, education or equal opportunities, all of which serve to improve social cohesion and the attractiveness of the territory.

And in their construction, all of these full-fledged banks are headed by entrepreneurial directors, true leaders of banking midcaps. This contributes to the performance of this type of bank.

In addition, the governance of banks, as I mentioned in my introduction, is vital. Their boards are composed of customer-members living in the same territory. The governance itself of cooperative banks is organised so as to focus not simply on customers, since it is our customers who are on our board, but also on regions and territories, since it is the customers of the region that make up the board of directors.

I would now like to talk about the economic usefulness of territorial banks. As we all know, France is a highly centralised country in terms of its decision-making processes, its ministries, and the headquarters of major groups. The system is very different in Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland, and in many other countries. Regional banks are important in these countries. Companies and the major decision-making centres are more evenly spread out across the country.

Regional banks as an antidote to strong centralisation in France

In France, regional banks are a possible, but real, antidote to the country’s highly centralised system.

Regional banks collect savings and grant loans in their territories. It is unthinkable to allocate savings collected in, say, Auvergne to the financing of projects in Alsace, or vice-versa, on the grounds that it would be more profitable in one than the other. This runs counter to our way of thinking, being and existing. Everyone today is championing short distribution networks; I am not sure if this a good thing or not. But whatever the case, we provide a short distribution network. And even BRED, which is present in several territories, works in this way in each one of them. We do not reallocate to the detriment of certain territories. There is no fungibility of savings in the regional banking system that could serve to move and reallocate savings to the detriment of one region and the benefit of another. It is vital to highlight and promote this system, as it serves to support and finance the fabric of SMEs in the regions.

Lastly, I would like to talk about the usefulness of traditional commercial banks, cooperative or otherwise. I say “traditional” because, while they are continuously modernising to address the expectations and needs of their customers, they continue to do the same banking business in essence, i.e. achieving correspondence, through their intermediary, between those with financing capacities (households and companies alike) and those with financing needs. This, quite simply, is working towards the financing of the real economy.

It is sometimes said that the financial markets could very well replace banks. This is an aberration, as it would result in substantial savings not being used to finance the economy. The financial markets work well for a limited number of economic players, because issuers require sufficient critical mass to achieve market listing and borrow, and because savers in their large majority lack the necessary skills to make the right choices. Furthermore, unlike banks, the financial markets do not take risks in the place of players in the real economy. The lion’s share of players with a financing capacity are unable to tap the financial markets in order to finance private individuals, professionals and SMEs because they are unable to manage their credit analysis or monitor them over time. Banks, however, are specialised in the processing of information contributing to that end. And, in a key aspect, banks support credit, liquidity and interest-rate risks on their income statement that would otherwise be borne by the lenders or the borrowers. Banks, then, serve to take risks that companies or natural persons do not want to take. Which is something that the financial markets do not do. The role of banks is thus irreducible.

To conclude, a close look at the current work, led in particular by Nicole Notat and Jean-Dominique Senard, on redefining the company and rethinking corporate governance by taking into account not just the interests of shareholders but also those of all stakeholders – employees, customers, society – demonstrates the refound modernity of cooperative banks. Through their construction – their customers being their shareholders and their representatives their board members – they are integrating into their governance itself the new direction favoured by companies. And as we have seen, they are fully contributing to local and regional finance, by taking into account the interests of the regions in which they operate.

To return to the theme of the conference, the economic momentum of territories requires local financing. Which cooperative banks provide. While they are perhaps not alone, this is their core vocation.

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Bank Euro zone Videos

What is the European banking union?

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Is Bitcoin a reliable currency?

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Bank Finance Innovation

“The anarcho-capitalist utopia of cryptocurrencies” Les Echos, 8th of October

Are bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies real currencies? They are essentially a product of a utopian world in which money would no longer be national but universal, valid in all countries and for everyone, and able to be transferred completely securely and without cost.

This currency would require no intermediaries and its value could not be manipulated by governments or central banks. It would be subject to private, decentralised management. It would guarantee the anonymity of transactions and its guardian would not be a central bank but an algorithm, supposedly infallible. In short, a form of anarcho-capitalism.

In the 1970s Friedrich Hayek and the Austrian school advocated the denationalisation of money by doing away with “the monopoly of government supplying money and to allow private enterprise to supply the public”. In some ways, the development of cryptocurrencies could be fulfilling this wish.

Gold as a counterparty

The first banking currencies were issued in quantities that were necessarily multiples of bank assets in precious metals, gold and silver. They circulated and were regulated freely by supply and demand, without state or centralised intervention.

The currency was subsequently issued not as a proportion of assets in gold or silver but consistent with the development of the economy. Money is thus created from credit. And loans make deposits. In other words, it is still the banks that create money.

This system is supervised by an institutional authority, the central bank, as there is no longer a self-regulation mechanism based on the convertibility of each currency into gold or silver.

Central banks were created following the serious financial crises of the late 19th century and the repeated bankruptcies of banks issuing money backed by gold or precious metals. By harmonising the currency sector and playing the role of lender of last resort, central banks created the possibility of stability and demonstrated the usefulness of institutions and rules.

Hyperspeculative assets

Cryptocurrencies have no counterparty, be it gold or silver, or the needs of the economy, since they are issued by private individuals according to arbitrarily set rules. Consequently, we are seeing a huge increase in private “currencies”, today totalling over 1,600! It is fairly clear that if everyone can create “currencies” from scratch, none of these currencies can earn the universal trust necessary to acquire the true status of currency.

Furthermore, if the economic system were to rely solely on these private currencies with no constraints on issuance, then it would quite simply no longer work, as there would no longer be any monetary constraints.

Rather than currencies, then, cryptocurrencies are financial assets at best. And for all the reasons set out above, their value is extremely unstable. A dip in confidence is enough to trigger a drastic slide in their value. Conversely, when their value rises, more and more people buy them, pushing up their price with no apparent limit and “in a vacuum”. This leads to speculative bubbles that may burst at any moment.

Cryptocurrencies at heart are hyperspeculative assets, as created by the financial world from time to time when it completely loses sight of the real economy.

That said, while these pseudo-currencies do not contribute to the common good (in the words of Jean Tirole), the encryption technology on which they are based, i.e. the blockchain, undoubtedly has a bright future and initial coin offerings (ICOs), under extremely strict conditions, are a project-financing method that broadens the range of possibilities. These last should not be confused with cryptocurrencies themselves, which are merely the product of a potentially dangerous utopia.

Please find my point of view, published in Les Echos “The arnacho-capitalist utopia of cryptocurrencies”