The systemic China-US rivalry. The appearance of a “Global South”, itself quite disparate. The war in Ukraine…The most flagrant manifestations of this fragmentation are the multiplication since 2010 of international military conflicts by almost 4 , of the number of countries subject to financial sanctions by a little less than 3 or even that of protectionist measures in the world by 6. This geopolitical fragmentation is thus accompanied by economic fragmentation albeit at a slower pace. Both threaten peace and security-the world’s noise sadly reminds of this every day- and the benefits of organised freedom of trade and capital flows. Let us not forget that, in emerging countries the poorest part of the population (below the minimum subsistence level) experienced a very sharp decline from 1995 to 2021.
Power play has returned to the centre of the world stage. China wants to regain a dominant position, after a long period of little geopolitical presence. Russia, after the peaceful end of the Soviet Union, is driven by its historical fear of being encircled and its insufficient consideration of where it ‘fits’ in the concert of world powers. The rejection of ‘double standards’ is mobilizing both the populations of emerging countries and their leaders. Distrust has therefore increased considerably between emerging countries and the West. The West which had served as a model for a long period and which set the tone for global regulations. This accounts for the current deficiency of global regulation modes: the UN, the WTO, etc., but also the usual more or less formalized bilateral mechanisms of coordination. The fragmentation of the world seems to be well underway.
Power play has returned to the centre of the world stage. China wants to regain a dominant position, after a long period of little geopolitical presence. Russia, after the peaceful end of the Soviet Union, is driven by its historical fear of being encircled and its insufficient consideration of where it ‘fits’ in the concert of world powers. The rejection of ‘double standards’ is mobilizing both the populations of emerging countries and their leaders.
Distrust has therefore increased considerably between emerging countries and the West. The West which had served as a model for a long period and which set the tone for global regulations. This accounts for the current deficiency of global regulation modes: the UN, the WTO, etc., but also the usual more or less formalized bilateral mechanisms of coordination. The fragmentation of the world seems to be well underway.
But at the same time we are also witnessing another fragmentation. At the heart of Western democracies, with the rise of populism and extremism. Democracies seem worn out. As Cioran put it, “civilisations develop through the belief in the myths upon which they were founded and decline through the doubts which assault them”.
The rise of Wokeism is both manifestation and cause. The no limits quest for the broadening of everyone’s rights, in all areas, without ever associating them with the symmetrical duties that would permit them, may potentially lead to moral ruin with a loss of all civic sense. And the possibility of financial ruin, with the funding of the social protection system, something which is essential, running out of steam. Here again, the resulting rise of distrust reinforces fragmentation. Distrust of the Government, institutions and even of others.
And here and there is an increasing distrust of democracy itself. Wokeism ends up fueling the rise of populism, which prides itself on wanting to restore fundamental values, while putting forward an illiberal logic, both economically and politically. This game of -Siamese-opposites risks an even more marked and potentially violent fragmentation of society.
This apparent fatigue of democracy can only solicit weak interest from other civilisations. The fragmentation of Western societies partly fuels the fragmentation of the world and the rise of general distrust. At the same time, the increase of autocratic regimes in emerging countries in turn leads to justified distrust on the part of Western countries.
Will we be able to re-establish the level of confidence in ourselves and others and the means of coordination necessary to avoid further developing the everyone-for-themselves logic of individuals and countries? Will we be able to avoid primitive violence, always justified by the anticipated violence of the other? Can we revive democracy and ensure its balance to protect such a precious asset? To avoid the deadly dynamic of distrust and the multifaceted detrimental consequences of fragmentation.