The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of a bipolar world and the emergence of an international order centered around the United States, the sole remaining superpower. This period saw the rise of a regulatory model based on market economy principles, free trade, democracy, and the promotion of human rights. Alongside it grew the idea of a global spread of democracy and a human rights-based diplomacy, even extending to the concept of a \u201cright of intervention.\u201d This period\u2014sometimes described as the \u201cend of history\u201d\u2014provided a certain form of stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Globalization, through the increasing integration of countries into the world economy and international trade networks, as well as through the diffusion of technology and capital, led to a dramatic reduction in global poverty. The share of the global population living below the subsistence minimum dropped from 40% in 1980 to about 10% in recent years. This occurred even though certain populations in Western countries\u2014particularly those tied to industries exposed to competition from lower-wage economies\u2014were negatively affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, this dynamic enabled the emergence and assertion of new powers. China, in particular, progressively moved up the value chain, capturing significant global market shares in a wide range of sectors. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, it has also expanded its spheres of influence\u2014securing, among other things, its access to energy resources and rare earths\u2014eventually becoming a hyperpower in its own right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Along the way, this transformation led to a growing challenge to the previous order. That challenge has also been taken up by the so-called \u201cGlobal South,\u201d a diverse set of countries united by their criticism of what they see as American\u2014or more broadly Western\u2014\u201cdouble standards.\u201d This Global South has questioned the legitimacy of the Western-led order and called for a greater role in global governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the heart of today\u2019s geopolitical fragmentation lies the systemic rivalry between China and the United States. China seeks to reclaim a dominant position on the global stage after a long period of geopolitical retreat\u2014a goal made explicit by Xi Jinping in 2021, when he stated that China should become the world\u2019s leading power by 2049. The United States, conversely, is determined to preserve its current status. Russia, for its part\u2014driven by a historical complex of encirclement and lack of recognition\u2014is striving to reassert its influence on the international stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Geopolitical and economic fragmentation is now evident. Between 2010 and the onset of the war in Ukraine, the number of international military conflicts increased nearly fourfold. The number of countries under financial sanctions nearly tripled. Protectionist measures affecting both international trade and cross-border direct investment multiplied sixfold. These developments reflect a logic of withdrawal and rising mistrust among states, undermining the benefits of regulated trade and capital flows. This fragmentation poses a serious threat to international peace and security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mistrust between the two hyperpowers has become substantial, deeply affecting global regulatory frameworks. Multilateral coordination and communication mechanisms\u2014essential for managing and resolving conflicts in their early stages\u2014are increasingly impaired, giving way to bilateral relations and a resurgence of confrontational dynamics. The central question today is whether contemporary societies can rebuild sufficient trust among stakeholders and develop effective forms of coordination to avoid a \u201cevery-man-for-himself\u201d world and the resurgence of primitive violence, always justified by the anticipated aggression of the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Olivier Klein
Professor of\u00a0Economics,\u00a0HEC<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of a bipolar world and the emergence of an international order centered around the United States, the sole remaining superpower. This period saw the rise of a regulatory model based on market economy principles, free trade, democracy, and the promotion of human rights. Alongside […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[137,136],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-conjoncture-en","category-economical-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n