The Dynamics of Economic and Political Fragmentation

The world is undergoing profound transformation, as the old order—once dominated by American-led globalization—faces mounting challenge from rising powers. With China’s dramatic ascent and Russia’s renewed ambitions, and the American desire to maintain its leadership, the global landscape is increasingly defined by rivalry, not cooperation. As states turn inward and mistrust deepens, the international order is being redrawn before our eyes. In this era of fragmentation, can the international community forge a path beyond confrontation and toward a new framework for peace and stability?

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of a bipolar world and the emergence of an international order centered around the United States, the sole remaining superpower. This period saw the rise of a regulatory model based on market economy principles, free trade, democracy, and the promotion of human rights. Alongside it grew the idea of a global spread of democracy and a human rights-based diplomacy, even extending to the concept of a “right of intervention.” This period—sometimes described as the “end of history”—provided a certain form of stability.

Globalization, through the increasing integration of countries into the world economy and international trade networks, as well as through the diffusion of technology and capital, led to a dramatic reduction in global poverty. The share of the global population living below the subsistence minimum dropped from 40% in 1980 to about 10% in recent years. This occurred even though certain populations in Western countries—particularly those tied to industries exposed to competition from lower-wage economies—were negatively affected.

At the same time, this dynamic enabled the emergence and assertion of new powers. China, in particular, progressively moved up the value chain, capturing significant global market shares in a wide range of sectors. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, it has also expanded its spheres of influence—securing, among other things, its access to energy resources and rare earths—eventually becoming a hyperpower in its own right.

Along the way, this transformation led to a growing challenge to the previous order. That challenge has also been taken up by the so-called “Global South,” a diverse set of countries united by their criticism of what they see as American—or more broadly Western—“double standards.” This Global South has questioned the legitimacy of the Western-led order and called for a greater role in global governance.

At the heart of today’s geopolitical fragmentation lies the systemic rivalry between China and the United States. China seeks to reclaim a dominant position on the global stage after a long period of geopolitical retreat—a goal made explicit by Xi Jinping in 2021, when he stated that China should become the world’s leading power by 2049. The United States, conversely, is determined to preserve its current status. Russia, for its part—driven by a historical complex of encirclement and lack of recognition—is striving to reassert its influence on the international stage.

Geopolitical and economic fragmentation is now evident. Between 2010 and the onset of the war in Ukraine, the number of international military conflicts increased nearly fourfold. The number of countries under financial sanctions nearly tripled. Protectionist measures affecting both international trade and cross-border direct investment multiplied sixfold. These developments reflect a logic of withdrawal and rising mistrust among states, undermining the benefits of regulated trade and capital flows. This fragmentation poses a serious threat to international peace and security.

Mistrust between the two hyperpowers has become substantial, deeply affecting global regulatory frameworks. Multilateral coordination and communication mechanisms—essential for managing and resolving conflicts in their early stages—are increasingly impaired, giving way to bilateral relations and a resurgence of confrontational dynamics. The central question today is whether contemporary societies can rebuild sufficient trust among stakeholders and develop effective forms of coordination to avoid a “every-man-for-himself” world and the resurgence of primitive violence, always justified by the anticipated aggression of the other.

Olivier Klein
Professor of Economics, HEC